Dearest loyal readers, I have returned, safe, sound and jetlagged, from my journeys abroad. I have learned much during my time away, including but certainly not limited to the following: the Dutch are amongst the friendliest people in the world; the Danish are not – in fact, they border on being indifferent, but beautiful, jerks when it comes to anything hospitality related. Barcelona is a city that has all the angles figured, quickly joining the illustrious ranks of Buenos Aires, Paris, and San Francisco in my list of World’s Greatest Places – the combination of the Pyrenees, the Mediterranean, omnipresent tapas, Gaudi and beautiful women sunbathing on topless beaches makes it one of the most amazing places I’ve visited.
I’ve also learned, or been reminded via sporadic internet updates, that the 2008 Atlanta Braves, especially the 2008 Braves of July/August, are, euphemistically, not very good. Everything that could go wrong this year has, and with the exceptions of Brian McCann and Jair Jurrjens there has been nothing positive, no silver lining. Let’s examine their 2008 league rankings in relevant categories:
60 Wins is 24th in MLB, 12th in league, 4th in division
79 Losses is tied for 24th in MLB, tied for 12th in league, 4th in division
.432 Win Pct is 24th in MLB, 12th in league, 4th in division
4.60 RS/G is 18th in MLB, 8th in league, 4th in division
4.81 RA/G is 20th in MLB, 11th in league, 3rd in division
-0.21 Diff/G is tied for 17th in MLB, tied for 8th in league, 3rd in division
-6.5 Pyth O/U is 30th in MLB, 16th in league, 5th in division
197.2 Hitter VORP is 7th in MLB, 5th in league, 2nd in division
75.2 Pitcher VORP is 25th in MLB, 13th in league, 3rd in division
.694 Def Eff is tied for 12th in MLB, tied for 7th in league, tied for 2nd in division
As you can see they are in the bottom half of every category except for Defensive Efficiency and VORP (12th and 7th) and in the bottom third for many. Perhaps the most noteworthy, and frightening, ranking is for their Pythagorean over/under – for this they are ranked 30th, or dead last in the majors. As it stands now, they are 24th in the majors for wins/losses, which is obviously terrible. However, if the Pythagorean is to be trusted as an accurate indicator of wins/losses, which it, by most non-Neanderthals involved with baseball, is to a certain degree, then the Braves are only going to get worse in the season’s final month, a proposition that is mind boggling in the worst possible way. I’m not sure how they can continue to regress after their atrocious performance in July and August (July: 10 wins -15 losses, 119 Runs Scored -141 Runs Allowed, .400 Winning Percentage/ August: 9 W-20 L, 127 RS-176 RA, .310 WP), but the Pyt O/U indicates that, at best, they will remain consistent in their awfulness. If the Braves continue at August’s pace, they will finish 67-95 for a .414 WP, their worst finish since 1990 when they went 65-97.
Perhaps more troublesome than that is the fact that next year’s team will most likely be just as bad. I suspect Smoltz will either retire before the season or give it one more brief go before retiring after a few ineffective games, that Hudson will take up to three months of 09’s season to work his way into the rotation, maybe longer for him to be a quality pitcher again, and that Chipper will continue his decline into an increasingly injured singles hitter.
