Archive for the 'Atlanta Braves' Category

More info on Kawakami

January 14, 2009

From FanGraphs.com:

But who is Kenshin Kawakami? The Braves have the right-hander signed for his age 34-6 seasons at an apparent cost of about $24 million, meaning that as a starter, the Braves are valuing him as a roughly two-win pitcher, akin to about Oliver Perez’s projection for the same time frame.

Kawakami throws a fastball around 88mph, relying on command of the outer part of the plate. He also has a big loopy overhand curveball that clocks in around the high 60s. A cut fastball around 85mph completes his repertoire. Kawakami’s throwing motion will remind some of Daisuke Matsuzaka’s though without Daisuke’s trademark hip thrust during his pause when his hands are at their peak altitude.

It will be important to see how Kawakami’s curveball, a big weapon for him to change the hitter’s eye level and disrupt their timing, given the vast difference in speed from his fastballs, reacts to the slightly bigger baseball used in America. If he’s unable to make that transition smoothly, it could prevent him from being effective out of the rotation.

Combined with the breakout, but still speculative, Jorge Campillo, the emerging youngster Jair Jurrjens and the often under rated Javier Vazquez, the Braves have built themselves a rotation that could end up solid top to bottom or could flame out in several spots.

Braves land Lowe!!

January 13, 2009

lowe_dodger

The Braves signed Lowe to a 4-year, $60 million deal, pending a physical. Despite what I may have said earlier, I’m thrilled. With Jurjens, Lowe, Vasquez and Kawakami, the Braves have a legit rotation. If Hudson is able to return by early August the Braves will have a good-to-excellent pitching staff. As it is we have two reliable starters, one possible budding ace, and one unknown (Kawakami) who could be very, very good.

However, I am concerned that the Braves just went from bad to mediocre but whatever, it’s better than nothing. If we can land a decent outfielder, I wouldn’t put us out of the wild card spot.

Plus, there’s this, which is always nice: “With their late push for Lowe, the Braves succeeded in beating out the New York Mets, the other principal suitor for Lowe.”

Ahoy, a New Year, a New Post, and a New (old) Center Fielder?

January 6, 2009

BRAVES CUBS

That’s right, I’m back and Druw might be too. After a disastrous season with the Dodgers, Andruw’s contract was restructured by LA and he apparently flunked out of Venezuelan Winter ball after only a few games. Yikes.

While that hardly seems like a player worth signing, much less trading for, the Braves (or Griffey-free Reds) will probably sign him for the league minimum. Says Richard Justice:

The Reds and Braves are among the teams believed to be interested in Jones, but they have zero incentive to make a deal. Even if they do not have to give up any significant players in a trade, they know they might be able get him for the major league minimum of $400,000 after the Dodgers release him.

I’d love to have him back, if only so he, if his downward spiral continues, can retire as a Brave.

Let us never forget that Bobby Cox is the man

September 13, 2008

Several years ago a friend of mine custom ordered a Bobby Cox jersey. When I heard the news, I immediately realized that my friend had just purchased the best possible Braves jersey. I mean, what could top it? Otis Nixon? Mark Lemke? Ron Gant? No, no and no, although I was once Mark Lemke for Halloween (true story – I was inspired by his triple fest during the 91 World Series). Anyway, to re-emphasize a point that is all but objective fact at this point, Bobby Cox is the man. Not only is he one of the most successful managers of all time (14 division titles, 5 National League pennants, 1 WS Championship, 3-time NL Manager of the Year, 4th in all-time managerial wins) but he also holds the MLB record for ejections (143) and, apparently, locker room destruction:

“Who was the pitcher that hit [Phil] Niekro?” Cox asked. It was Craig Swan. “Yeah, Swan hit Niekro in the head,” he said. “I got [ticked] off and tore the sink off the wall in the bathroom. Water everywhere. I had to pay for it.”

Quotation courtesy of the AJC.

James Parr!!

September 4, 2008

The Season With One Month Remaining

September 3, 2008

Dearest loyal readers, I have returned, safe, sound and jetlagged, from my journeys abroad. I have learned much during my time away, including but certainly not limited to the following: the Dutch are amongst the friendliest people in the world; the Danish are not – in fact, they border on being indifferent, but beautiful, jerks when it comes to anything hospitality related. Barcelona is a city that has all the angles figured, quickly joining the illustrious ranks of Buenos Aires, Paris, and San Francisco in my list of World’s Greatest Places – the combination of the Pyrenees, the Mediterranean, omnipresent tapas, Gaudi and beautiful women sunbathing on topless beaches makes it one of the most amazing places I’ve visited.

I’ve also learned, or been reminded via sporadic internet updates, that the 2008 Atlanta Braves, especially the 2008 Braves of July/August, are, euphemistically, not very good. Everything that could go wrong this year has, and with the exceptions of Brian McCann and Jair Jurrjens there has been nothing positive, no silver lining. Let’s examine their 2008 league rankings in relevant categories:

60 Wins is 24th in MLB, 12th in league, 4th in division
79 Losses is tied for 24th in MLB, tied for 12th in league, 4th in division
.432 Win Pct is 24th in MLB, 12th in league, 4th in division
4.60 RS/G is 18th in MLB, 8th in league, 4th in division
4.81 RA/G is 20th in MLB, 11th in league, 3rd in division
-0.21 Diff/G is tied for 17th in MLB, tied for 8th in league, 3rd in division
-6.5 Pyth O/U is 30th in MLB, 16th in league, 5th in division
197.2 Hitter VORP is 7th in MLB, 5th in league, 2nd in division
75.2 Pitcher VORP is 25th in MLB, 13th in league, 3rd in division
.694 Def Eff is tied for 12th in MLB, tied for 7th in league, tied for 2nd in division

As you can see they are in the bottom half of every category except for Defensive Efficiency and VORP (12th and 7th) and in the bottom third for many. Perhaps the most noteworthy, and frightening, ranking is for their Pythagorean over/under – for this they are ranked 30th, or dead last in the majors. As it stands now, they are 24th in the majors for wins/losses, which is obviously terrible. However, if the Pythagorean is to be trusted as an accurate indicator of wins/losses, which it, by most non-Neanderthals involved with baseball, is to a certain degree, then the Braves are only going to get worse in the season’s final month, a proposition that is mind boggling in the worst possible way. I’m not sure how they can continue to regress after their atrocious performance in July and August (July: 10 wins -15 losses, 119 Runs Scored -141 Runs Allowed, .400 Winning Percentage/ August: 9 W-20 L, 127 RS-176 RA, .310 WP), but the Pyt O/U indicates that, at best, they will remain consistent in their awfulness. If the Braves continue at August’s pace, they will finish 67-95 for a .414 WP, their worst finish since 1990 when they went 65-97.

Perhaps more troublesome than that is the fact that next year’s team will most likely be just as bad. I suspect Smoltz will either retire before the season or give it one more brief go before retiring after a few ineffective games, that Hudson will take up to three months of 09’s season to work his way into the rotation, maybe longer for him to be a quality pitcher again, and that Chipper will continue his decline into an increasingly injured singles hitter.

Might as well make everygame a total shitshow

September 2, 2008

I don’t even know what happened here.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
ATL (59-79) 1 0 5 4 0 4 0 0 2 16 21 3
FLA (70-68) 3 0 0 6 4 0 0 1 14 15 0

Wild.

Braves get shutout for seven innings by one of the worst pitchers in baseball

August 19, 2008

Barry “Worst Contract Ever” Zito? Really? Really.

Yes, the Braves were shut out for seven innings by a man who has lost eight more games than he’s won (7-15) and accumulated a 5.43 ERA. Even after subtracting his miserable first six games, he is 7-9 with a 4.85 ERA. The more advanced (and accurate) calculations also show him to be absolutely terrible this season; his VORP is -5.2, good for 19th out of 20 Giants pitchers and ____ in the majors**. His WHIP? 1.70.

And yet the Braves managed just seven hits (five off Zito) and went 1-8 with runners in scoring position. Chipper sums it up nicely: “Bad, bad baseball,” Jones said. “A lot of mental mistakes. Forgetting outs. Forgetting counts. It’s everybody.” Yep.

The Braves finish their most recent homestead with an 1-6 record. They are now exactly a million and half games out of first and 147 games below .500.

EDIT: In fairness to Zito, there’s this:

The major league leader in losses, Zito has won just 18 of 58 starts since signing a $126 million, seven-year contract with San Francisco before the 2007 season.

He improved to 97-5 in his career when receiving four or more runs of support, including 12-1 with the Giants. San Francisco has scored no more than one run in 24 of his starts.

97-5 is pretty good. San Fran scoring one run or less in over 40% of his starts is god-awful but, then again, so are the Giants.

**baseballprospectus.com is trifling me right now.

Francoeur continues to not suck; Braves beat Giants 11-5

August 17, 2008

The two pillars of the Braves ‘08 season, Francoeur and Mike Hampton, came through again last night. Hampton pitched six solid innings (6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 SO) and Francoeur was 4-5 with a double, 2 RBI and two runs scored. Yep, you read that right. In fact, he’s been on a tear of sorts; in the past three games he’s gone 7-14 with 1 HR, a double, 5 RBIs, and 4 Rs, raising his average 9 points, his on-base percentage by 6 points, and his slugging by 13. Of course his line is still atrocious (.233/.292/.358 ) but perhaps those two extra-base hits (his only two in the past 19 games) will inspire/remind him to perform to his potential or at least the league average.

Speaking of league average, it seems as though Kelly Johnson is the MLB’s most average player. Fangraphs.com notes that Kelly’s stats are more mediocre than any other players:

His batting average is .266, compared to a league average of .259.
His on base percentage is .335, compared to a league average of .330.
His slugging percentage is .416, compared to a league average of .413.

He’s posting an average BB/K rate, an average ISO, and an average BABIP. His WPA/LI (which is measured as above average) is -0.01. He’s even average defensively, as the Fielding Bible +/- system ranks him as just +3 plays as a second baseman, which is not quite a premium position but not a spot for oafs either.

So we have that going for us.

Braves lose only game I will attend this year

August 15, 2008

But really, it was an excellent game to witness firsthand. First, my seats were spectacular, just 4 rows back and 5 feet to the left (if facing from centerfield) from home plate – you could see me throughout the local broadcast and, for about 0.2 seconds you can see my ink-stained shorts on Sportscenter. That’s right, I am the man.

Second, the game was exciting, even if Glavine was essentially bitchslapped after starting the game with a promising strikeout against Soriano, who later exacted his revenge with a crushing HR. Ramirez also hit a bomb that was a no-doubter from the moment it left his bat. The Cubs were fierce all throughout the night, scoring two or more runs in the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th innings and threatening a few other times.

The Braves were no slouches, though. Kotsay, who, in the 5th, lost a ball in the lights my ten-year old brother could have caught, went 5-5 and hit for the cycle, the first Brave to do so since 1987. Believe me, shit was wild when he hit that double, completing the cycle; he seemed nonplussed about the whole thing, possibly because the Braves were down or maybe because he botched that easy-ass catch earlier, who knows, but the Braves fans, even if we were in the minority, loved it and gave him a standing ovation. He acknowledged it with some rodeo/surfing hand gesture and a grim face.

Francoeur had quite the game as well. I went expecting to see him hit into a bases-loaded, inning-ending double play, but he completely subverted my expectations. He went 3-5(!) with a monster 3-R home run (!!!) in the 7th. I hereby promise not to talk shit about him for at least a week.

In the fifth, that fuck Ted Lilly (6IP, 4 ER) pelted Escobar in the elbow and he, Escobar, freaked out. He tried to charge the mound, had to be restrained by both Soto and the homeplate umpire, and eventually both dugouts and bullpens cleared. Nothing much happened after that other than me standing up and screaming at Yunel to go out there and beat the piss out of Lilly, which he very easily would have; however, it just wasn’t meant to be. In a related note, there is no reason for the bullpen to come all the way to the infield for something that hasn’t even escalated past a yelling match. It would be one thing if they came charging down field in a dead sprint, furious and shouting, but they were barely jogging, making the whole act seem obligatory and silly instead of intimidating and team-oriented.

Alas, the Braves lost. And not only did they lose, they suffered the indignity of losing at home while the 15,000 + Cubs fans in attendance berated them with chants of, “Let’s go Cubbies!!” Blue hats and Sandberg jerseys were everywhere, and I was ashamed not at losing but at how pitiful their outspoken and excellent fandom made us Braves fans look. Next to their chants, their signs and their evil, beady little eyes, we seemed downright timid and confused. Well, except for the drunk girl three seats down who would, completely without provocation, yell, at no one in particular, “Cubs suck!”
Her, I appreciated. The rest of us? Not so much.