More on the Lowe signing

It seems like we’re slightly overpaying for Lowe but not so much that it’s a bad deal. Because of his age (35 at signing), the guaranteed fourth year might become a liability but after such a shitty off-season, Wren had to make something happen. From FanGraphs.com:

Well, Lowe is 35 years old, but has been one of the most consistent, durable, and effective major league starters over the last four seasons. His minimum innings pitched total in that span is 199. He has made 32+ starts each season while averaging approximately a 3.55 ERA and 3.75 FIP. This past season actually wound up being Lowe’s best as a starter. He posted a 3.26 FIP and 3.27 K/BB ratio, both lows in his career work as a starter.

He projects to about +3.6 wins next season, which translates to a fair market value of $16.5 mil. If he declines by 0.6 wins per season, we get the following:

2009: +3.6 at $16.5 mil
2010: +3.0 at $14.9 mil
2011: +2.4 at $13.0 mil

That deal would net +9.0 wins and cost $44.4 mil over three seasons. A four-year deal would come in the $55 mil range. Given that the Braves are reportedly valuing Lowe at $0.6 mil more than his 3-yr projection and $5 mil more than his 4-yr projection, the deal looks pretty sound.

Braves land Lowe!!

The Braves signed Lowe to a 4-year, $60 million deal, pending a physical. Despite what I may have said earlier, I’m thrilled. With Jurjens, Lowe, Vasquez and Kawakami, the Braves have a legit rotation. If Hudson is able to return by early August the Braves will have a good-to-excellent pitching staff. As it is we have two reliable starters, one possible budding ace, and one unknown (Kawakami) who could be very, very good.

However, I am concerned that the Braves just went from bad to mediocre but whatever, it’s better than nothing. If we can land a decent outfielder, I wouldn’t put us out of the wild card spot.

Plus, there’s this, which is always nice: “With their late push for Lowe, the Braves succeeded in beating out the New York Mets, the other principal suitor for Lowe.”

Derek Lowe to meet with Braves today

Legitimate deal or last ditch effort to patch up otherwise miserable off-season by Frank Wren? Either way, signing Lowe is the only remaining option the Braves have at this point to be anything other than a contender for third or fourth place. If Lowe is productive and healthy and Chipper and McCann do what they did last year and Andruw comes back at 2/3 his old form and Vazquez becomes an ace and our bullpen heals and our outfield develops power, then I think we have a decent shot of winning. That is to say, considering all those “and”s, we have almost no chance.