Glavine to meet with Wren to discuss tiny contract offer

$1 million is not much, but Glavine doesn’t have the insane recover-from-anything-and-become-dominant-again past that Smoltz has, making it unlikely for Red Sox-like snatching. Plus Glavine lives in Alpharetta in the off-season.

“I’m obviously in a good place financially, I don’t need the money,” Glavine said on Saturday. “But…there’s a price for everything. I don’t know how to say that without someone getting offended. In every business, there’s a price that makes it worthwhile.”

We’ll see, I guess, but it’s not like Glavine’s going to make much of a difference either way. At best, I figure him to be a 4 or 5 starter, of which we have plenty. At this point his presence on the team is more ceremonial than practical.

Andruw signs minor league contract with Rangers

Bummer. Right about now is when he sheds 40lbs and begins to crush home runs to all fields.

The Rangers signed him to a $500,000 contract with $1 million possible in incentives. They have also made him no promises about making the team, and he could become a free agent if he’s not on the Major League roster by March 20.

“We’ve communicated our situation and expectations clearly with Andruw,” Daniels said. “He understands this is a second chance to show his commitment and work ethic. Over the last few years he has fallen off in his level of production, but it’s a no-risk deal for us. We have a veteran group of quality outfielders and some young guys behind them. He’s got to come in and compete for a job. I don’t see a downside.”

I agree. No downside other than having to clear room for him on the 40 man roster, which seems pretty low risk but apparently not enough so for the Braves. Oh well. There’s always Manny (rofl^infinity).

John Rocker adds anti-semitism to his already impressive roster

Fresh from his recent “Speak English” campaign, John Rocker is in the news again. He was kicked out of a W hotel opening for verbally assaulting an Atlanta radio personality, Steak Shapiro, who has been highly critical of Rocker since his infamous Sports Illustrated profile in late 1999. Says Shapiro:

“Basically, last night, John proved he was everything I’ve said he was over the years,” Shapiro said Friday. “I saw him staring me up and down. I told him, ‘John, let’s be civil here, that was all a long time ago.’ He told me, ‘It wasn’t that long ago, mother [expletive]. And right away, he pulled out the ‘Jew’ card.”

Sabernomics defends Francoeur’s $4 million with stats that confuse me

And I think he has a point. According to Saber’s wacky and way-above-my-head calculations, Francoeur generated soemthing like $13.78 mil a year for the Braves over the past three years. Actually, screw it – here is his summary for you to make sense of:

Is Francoeur worth $4 million to the Braves? The quick answer is yes, absolutely, and it’s not even close. Despite all the flaws in his game and his failure to meet misplaced expectations, he’s still a major-league baseball player. Even during his awful 2008 season, his marginal revenue product (MRP) contribution for his play in the field was approximately $12 million. This may seem like a lot, but all major-league quality baseball players are valuable assets. During the first six years of service, the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) limits player compensation, and that is why we can easily say that many players are worth more than they are being paid.
…
I have done some analysis of player salaries during arbitration years, but I haven’t gone that in depth. In my book, I report that position players tend to receive 77 percent less than their estimated marginal revenue product during their fourth through sixth years of service (estimated). Based on his previous three-year average of his MRP ($13.78 million), that puts his expected salary at $3.17 million. Based on his past season alone, his expected salary is $2.84 million. The Braves appear to have the better offer on the table.

So yes he is worth the $4 million but, at the same time, he isn’t. Either way the Braves will still make money with him, even if they have to pay $1.15 mil more than is standard. Of course Francoeur was one of the worst players in the Majors last year but he could, conceivably, bounce back to being average. If so, the $4 mil would be a steal, and I might even consider forgiving him for the shitshow that was his entire 08 season.

And as if Francoeur’s failure of a season wasn’t evident enough, Saber also adds this tidbit: “And according Plus/Minus, 2008 was a poor defensive season for Francoeur: he made 17 fewer plays than the average right fielder, ranking him 30th in the league.”

Ugh.

Don’t do it

Jeff Francouer wants $4 million for next year, $1.15 mil more than the Braves offered. In case you weren’t paying attention last year, paying him his much is about as good of an idea as this. Or this. Or being the kid on the right.

This line from the AJC sort of begins to sum it up:

Francoeur made $460,000 and set career-lows in average (.239), home runs (11) and slugging percentage (.359).

Braves have 16 players in World Baseball Classic; I care approximately not at all

According to mlb.com, the Braves have 16 players from their 40 person roster on various WBC provisional rosters, including Chipper and McCann to the USA team. I could care less about this faux-World Cup for baseball. The players seem not to hustle as much and the fans, in the US at least, seem unenthused. Of course, this is only the second WBC, so it very well could turn itself around and become something worth watching. I doubt it. Not surprisingly, McCann doesn’t feel the same way:

“I’m pretty pumped up,” McCann said. “This is something I’ve always want to do. Ever since the [Classic] started, I’ve always wanted a chance to play, and here it is”

Of course the first one was four two years ago meaning that always for McCann is a mere four two years, but who’s counting.

Andruw may not end up in Atlanta, after all

Mark Bowman writes that the Braves may pass on resigning ‘Druw, even for league minimum of 400k, because of roster problems that would ensue.

If the Braves were to extend Jones a Major League contract, they would be forced to remove a player from a 40-man roster that is at its max now that Derek Lowe has signed his contract. Left-handed reliever Francisley Bueno has already cleared waivers to make room for Lowe, who will be officially introduced as a Brave on Friday morning.

While the sum of $400,000 might seem like a bargain for a 10-time Gold Glove winner, the total cost, which includes the possibility of losing the player who is removed from the 40-man roster, appears to be one Atlanta isn’t willing to spend on Jones.

This doesn’t rule out the possibility that Jones could find himself back in the Braves organization. But all indications are that he would have to sign a Minor League contract to afford himself this opportunity to be reacquainted with the club that developed and employed him from 1993-2007.

Bowman goes on to offer up insight into his rapid decline that goes beyond the standard fat/lazy arguments.

With his admirable desire to play through the inevitable aches and pains, Jones started more games than any other Major Leaguer during a 10-season span (1998-2007). Just six players started as many as 1,500 games during this period, and Alex Rodriguez was the only one who came within 34 starts of Jones’ total (1,564).

This doesn’t even account for the 53 starts Jones made in the postseason games played during this stretch.

In addition to refuting the lazy claim (what lazy superstar would play that often, even while hurt?), it gives the first non-damning explanation. Ten years of diving catches and playing through nagging injuries has to take it’s toll eventually.

The Mets and Reds were mentioned as the two teams Andruw would play for if the Braves chose not to sign him.

More info on Kawakami

From FanGraphs.com:

But who is Kenshin Kawakami? The Braves have the right-hander signed for his age 34-6 seasons at an apparent cost of about $24 million, meaning that as a starter, the Braves are valuing him as a roughly two-win pitcher, akin to about Oliver Perez’s projection for the same time frame.

Kawakami throws a fastball around 88mph, relying on command of the outer part of the plate. He also has a big loopy overhand curveball that clocks in around the high 60s. A cut fastball around 85mph completes his repertoire. Kawakami’s throwing motion will remind some of Daisuke Matsuzaka’s though without Daisuke’s trademark hip thrust during his pause when his hands are at their peak altitude.

It will be important to see how Kawakami’s curveball, a big weapon for him to change the hitter’s eye level and disrupt their timing, given the vast difference in speed from his fastballs, reacts to the slightly bigger baseball used in America. If he’s unable to make that transition smoothly, it could prevent him from being effective out of the rotation.

Combined with the breakout, but still speculative, Jorge Campillo, the emerging youngster Jair Jurrjens and the often under rated Javier Vazquez, the Braves have built themselves a rotation that could end up solid top to bottom or could flame out in several spots.

Ron Gant snubbed for Hall of Fame

Okay, okay. So maybe he wasn’t snubbed. His lifetime numbers (1651 hits, 1080 runs, 321 homeruns, 1008 RBIs, and .256 avg) aren’t bad but certainly not hall-worthy. However, this seems a bit unnecessary (bold and italics mine):

Nine players didn’t receive enough votes to return to the ballot next year: Mark Grace, David Cone, Matt Williams, Mo Vaughn, Jay Bell, Jesse Orosco, Ron Gant, Dan Plesac and Greg Vaughn. Gant, Plesac and Vaughn didn’t receive any votes.

Did they have to point out that he didn’t get any? A little harsh, I think.

Congrats to the very deserving Ricky Henderson and Jim Rice.

A doff to loyal reader Sablesma for pointing this out.

More on the Lowe signing

It seems like we’re slightly overpaying for Lowe but not so much that it’s a bad deal. Because of his age (35 at signing), the guaranteed fourth year might become a liability but after such a shitty off-season, Wren had to make something happen. From FanGraphs.com:

Well, Lowe is 35 years old, but has been one of the most consistent, durable, and effective major league starters over the last four seasons. His minimum innings pitched total in that span is 199. He has made 32+ starts each season while averaging approximately a 3.55 ERA and 3.75 FIP. This past season actually wound up being Lowe’s best as a starter. He posted a 3.26 FIP and 3.27 K/BB ratio, both lows in his career work as a starter.

He projects to about +3.6 wins next season, which translates to a fair market value of $16.5 mil. If he declines by 0.6 wins per season, we get the following:

2009: +3.6 at $16.5 mil
2010: +3.0 at $14.9 mil
2011: +2.4 at $13.0 mil

That deal would net +9.0 wins and cost $44.4 mil over three seasons. A four-year deal would come in the $55 mil range. Given that the Braves are reportedly valuing Lowe at $0.6 mil more than his 3-yr projection and $5 mil more than his 4-yr projection, the deal looks pretty sound.